ReportsnReports.com: Russia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International 's "Russia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011" is now available at ReportsnReports.
- Dallas, TX (1888PressRelease) August 20, 2011 - This latest Russia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 47.9% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 70.3% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Russia's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 62.1%, while its share of production is put at 72.5%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 57%, with the country accounting for 67.5% of supply.
State-controlled Gazprom has a virtual monopoly over gas transportation and exports. With it being the main provider, we see gas output rising from an estimated 560bcm in 2010 to 650bcm by 2015. Russian domestic companies control most of Russia's oil production. Rosneft is the main state-controlled oil producer. The companies delivered 2010 output of crude oil and condensates averaging an estimated 10.3mn b/d. Oil production seems likely to rise only slowly over the next few years. Our 2015 production forecast is for 10.60mn b/d.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Russian oil production of 5.5%, with output rising slowly from an estimated 10.3mn b/d in 2010 to a peak of 11.0mn b/d in 2016/17, before easing to 10.8mn b/d by 2020. Oil consumption during the period is forecast to rise by 28.3%, permitting exports peaking at 7.59mn b/d in 2016. Gas consumption is expected to be up from an estimated 396bcm to 471bcm by 2020, providing export potential peaking at 224bcm in 2015.
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Russia holds fifth place, below Poland and Turkey, in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It holds fifth place, below Turkey, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, aided by unrivalled hydrocarbons resources. Its oil and gas reserves account for much of the upstream score, but licensing, privatisation and country risk factors are less impressive. Medium-term scope exists for Russia to overtake Turkey and Poland above it, but it is likely to remain behind Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Russia is at the top of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment Ratings, but shares first place with Turkey and is just one point above Poland. There are a few particularly high scores, and there is some risk from Poland over the longer term. There are excellent scores for refining capacity, demand on oil and gas market, population and nominal GDP.
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