New Book Says Middle East Protesters will Cave In to Despots Unless They Get More Backing
A new book on the Middle East, using historical data on working class mass mobilizations, suggests that the fight will probably soon go out of the remaining rebels, without greater support.
- New York, NY (1888PressRelease) March 17, 2011 - Dr. Catherine Claxton-Dong, in The Middle East Revolutions: A Framework for Analysis, the first book in her Working Class Rising series, reviews past mass mobilizations of the working class, and reaches some sobering conclusions about the chances of demonstrators in the Middle East succeeding in bringing about democracy.
Dr. Claxton-Dong's data suggests that the working class is not inclined to overthrow their rulers, when the rulers fight back. She paints a picture of people during working class revolts showing a strong streak of traditionalism, timidity when it comes to force, and a preference for being led, rather than leading.
According to Claxton-Dong, the working class is more interested in better treatment - particularly when it comes to jobs - than they are in actual democracy. They are drawn to their cause not based on an intellectual interest in justice for the individual, worth fighting for at all costs, but based on a sense of moral virtue derived from the norms of the society they live in and are exposed to. They thrive on the emotional bonds that they form as a group - in working towards a higher purpose together.
But this is hard to sustain. They can be easily dissuaded, not just through physical force, but through the loss of that emotional conviction that drives them. Claxton-Dong even claims that in periods when the working class rise, even as they come together for emotional satisfaction - as with a "Day of Rage" - they also seem to find some (perverse?) emotional satisfaction in submissiveness.
Dr. Claxton-Dong reaches her conclusions based on a study of massive mobilizations of the working class that occurred primarily in 19th century and 20th century western Europe and the United States. She classifies these into three groups - political, economic, and social - excluding revolutions that are demonstrably more focused on civil rights, or based on regional differences.
Her short, but well-documented, book uses brief descriptions of these historical mobilizations to explore the characteristics that they have in common, which she weaves together with an on-going analysis of recent events in the Middle East.
With a publication date of March 7 (the book is presently available only on Amazon's kindle), it is refreshingly up-to-date, even as it presents an entirely new, and troubling, view of what - if she is correct - we are likely to see occur in the Middle East in the coming months.
Dr. Claxton-Dong does offer some hope, that the new global community - essentially, the Facebook community - may help to sustain demonstrators emotionally in these countries. But she also makes clear that wealthy rulers, if they can find (or buy) the soldiers to fight for them, are likely to succeed in putting everyday working people "back in their place" as the rage becomes replaced by fear.
Unless the rest of us can find additional ways to give the people of the Middle East more than just long-distance emotional support.
The author of The Middle East Revolutions can be contacted at ccdong ( @ ) sbcglobal dot net
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