Exclusive Release: "The First Nuclear Detonation of the 21st Century" - A Wikistrat Crowdsourced Simulation
Wikistat's analytic community, comprised of hundreds of subject-matter experts from around the world, recently explored future pathways toward the 21st century's first nuclear detonation in its latest crowdsourced simulation "The First Nuclear Detonation of the 21st Century".
- New York, NY (1888PressRelease) November 15, 2012 - During October of 2012, over 75 geopolitical analysts from around the world participated in a crowdsourced simulation on Wikistrat's collaborative consulting platform, exploring possible future pathways for the 21st century's first nuclear detonation. The simulation's assumption was that some actor (state or non-state) will inevitably succeed in purposely using a nuclear device against a dedicated foe.
The analytic purpose of the simulation was to explore the repercussions of the 21st century's first nuclear detonation and forecast how major powers would react to and view the utility of nuclear weapons afterwards. Conventional wisdom on the subject states that any such event would inevitably "change everything." Wikistrat aimed to test that assumption.
Below are excerpted takeaways from the simulation's Executive Summary:
• Significant uncertainty abounds regarding the West's likely responses to successful nuclear terrorism on its soil. There is a significant and lasting post-9/11 "hangover" associated with "unwinnable" wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, if anything would elicit a formal declaration of war by a nuclear great power against another state, this would be it.
• How other nuclear powers (Russia, India, China) would respond to nuclear terrorism is also uncertain, but it is easier to imagine them responding in kind.
• Any nuclear great power responding to an act of nuclear terrorism would have an unusually free hand in terms of international constraints on its ability to respond. However, the longer it took that great power to determine who the attacker was, the more constraints would likely be applied.
• It is not clear that nuclear terrorism would work any better than conventional terrorism in achieving the attackers' desired outcomes. The only certainty is that the attacked state would institute far stricter domestic police controls in response to nuclear terror.
• Civil wars involving nuclear powers are a great unknown, but use of nuclear weapons in such conflicts is entirely plausible.
• The stunning show-of-force effect afforded by EMPs makes this an entirely plausible use of nuclear weapons in the future.
For more insights into the simulation, download the simulation's Executive Summary and watch the video introducing this simulation in this link: http://bitly.com/TvGQLl.
For the full report and for more information on Wikistrat, please contact info ( @ ) Wikistrat dot com dot
About Us: Wikistrat is the world's first massively multiplayer online consultancy (MMOC). It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts via a patent pending crowdsourcing methodology to provide geopolitical insights. This online network offers a uniquely powerful and unprecedented strategic consulting service: the Internet's only central intelligence exchange for strategic analysis and forecasting.
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