2014 3rd Quarter Business Confidence Index Shows Economic Stabilization

This press release discusses the 2014 3rd quarter business confidence index, as well as how individuals feel about a few specific events with respect to the US economy. End Quote

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (1888PressRelease) November 04, 2014 - Hebert Research and Washington Trust's Business Confidence Index, which began in 1991, is a critical economic forecasting index on the Washington State Economy. It is produced every quarter. The index is based on a panel of 200 CEO's and CFO's representing companies within the State of Washington.

The results of the Business Confidence Index as of the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is 60.2 out of 100. This is a similar result to what was found earlier this year at the end of 1st Quarter of 2014 (59.0). Anytime the Business Confidence Index is above 50, there is evidence that the economy is expanding. There is very minor statistical difference between the indices within the last three Quarters, this indicates that the Business Confidence trend has stabilized since recovering from the great recession. The statistical analysis reveals that there is a correlation between total expected changes in cost over the next twelve months and business confidence.

The expected decrease in revenue from 9.94% in 1st Quarter of 2014 to 8.89% 3rd Quarter of 2014. This decrease may be due to projected change in average prices or fees, as they decreased from 3.61% in 1st Quarter of 2014 to 3.04% for 3rd Quarter of 2014. The fall in revenue, however, is mostly off set by an expected change in average operating costs from 5.86% in the 1st Quarter of 2014 to 5.06%. Total capital expenditures for facilities and equipment decreased from beginning of this year 2014 from 6.13% to 2.63%. Companies have less cash flow to spend on expanding or improving production. This is the lowest it has been for the past year.

The results show that 27.5% of respondents reported a "very low" degree of confidence in Obamacare. However, the mean level of confidence was 4.41 out of 10. Over half (51.6%) of special interest respondents reported a high levels of concern (8, 9 or 10).

There was a 35.2% time level of concern. Due to political tensions between Russia and Ukraine, 43.6% of respondents reported a mid-degree of concern and the mean response was a rating of 4.24 out of 10. 13.9% ranked their concern as 0 out of 10, and the second highest frequency answer after a degree of concern of 5 out of 10 (22.5%). With respect to deflation, 41.9% respondents reported low levels of concern, 40% medium levels, and 18.9% high levels of concern. This indicates that individuals are not worried about the possibility of the U.S. economy facing deflation.

In regards to how local business leaders felt banking issues affect businesses, 27.0% felt they had no influence on businesses. Exactly half of respondents (50%) gave a rating of 4 or less, indicating a negative effect. The remaining 23.9% believe the banking issues are having a positive effect on their business.

For further information, including charts and graphs of findings, please contact Jim Hebert by phone at (425) 301-7447 or by email at jhebert ( @ ) hebertresearch dot com.

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